[Situational analysis of periodontal disease burden for adults in China from 1990 to 2019 and its incidence trend prediction].

Objective: To analyze the burden and changing trends of periodontal disease in adults of the mainland of China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the incidence trends of periodontal disease in the next 25 years, with a goal to provide a basis for reducing the burden of periodontal disease and formulating relevant prevention and treatment measures. Methods: Data on the incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALY) rate of periodontal disease among adults in the mainland of China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2019 (GBD 2019) database. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was used to estimate the temporal trend of periodontal disease, and the age-period-cohort model (APC) was used to predict the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease in Chinese adults from 2020 to 2044. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rate of adult periodontal disease in the mainland of China showed an increasing trend, with EAPCs of 0.3 (95%CI: 0.1-0.6), 0.5 (95%CI: 0.1-0.8), and 0.5 (95%CI: 0.1-0.8), respectively. The incidence and prevalence of periodontitis among the population aged 35-39 years old and 40-44 years old increased the most significantly, with EAPCs of 0.8 and 0.7, respectively, whereas the change in periodontal disease prevalence tended to be stable and the increase trend in prevalence was lower in the elderly group (EAPC=0.4). The incidence (EAPC=2.1), prevalence (EAPC=2.6) and DALY rate (EAPC=2.6) of periodontal disease in females increased more than those in males (EAPC=1.9, 2.4, and 2.4, respectively), of which the prevalence had exceeded that of males in 2019. The APC model predicted that the prevalence of periodontal disease in the period of 2020-2044 in China would still be on an upward trend, and the increase rate would be higher in females than in males. Conclusions: The burden of periodontal disease among adults in China had been increasing over the past 30 years, especially among young and middle-aged adults as well as females, and the incidence of periodontal disease will continue to increase over the next 25 years.目的： 分析1990—2019年我国成人牙周病的疾病负担及变化趋势，并预测未来25年的牙周病发病趋势，为减轻我国牙周病负担和制订相关防治措施提供依据。 方法： 利用2019全球疾病负担研究（GBD）数据库，提取1990—2019年我国成人牙周病的发病率、患病率和伤残调整寿命年（DALY）率数据。采用年估计变化百分比（EAPC）估计近30年来我国牙周病的变化趋势，并基于年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型预测2020—2044年我国成人牙周病的年龄标化发病率。 结果： 1990—2019年我国成人牙周病的发病率、患病率和DALY率均呈上升趋势，EAPC分别为0.3（95%CI：0.1~0.6）、0.5（95%CI：0.1~0.8）和0.5（95%CI：0.1~0.8）。35~39岁人群牙周炎发病率和40~44岁人群患病率的上升幅度最高（EAPC分别为0.8和0.7），≥60岁人群牙周病发病率的变化趋势平稳（EAPC为0~0.1），患病率的上升幅度相对较低（EAPC为0.2~0.4）。女性牙周病发病率（EAPC为2.1）、患病率（EAPC为2.6）和DALY率（EAPC为2.6）的上升幅度均高于男性（EAPC分别为1.9、2.4、2.4），尤其是在2019年其发病率已超过男性。APC模型预测显示，2020—2044年我国牙周病的发病率仍然呈上升趋势，且女性增长速度高于男性。 结论： 近30年来我国成人牙周病的疾病负担日益严重，尤其是在中青年和女性人群中，并且未来25年牙周病的发病率可能继续增长。.