Study on the spatial spillover effect and path mechanism of green finance development on China's energy structure transformation

Green finance is essential for supporting the development of green, low-carbon projects and preventing environmental and climate financial risks. Investigating and studying whether and how it can aid in implementing energy transformation is worthwhile. This paper uses 30 provinces from 2004 to 2020 as research samples, the entropy method to construct a green finance measurement system, and the weighted multidimensional vector angle index method to construct an energy low-carbon transformation index based on the actual situation of green finance in China and the existing theoretical research basis. We systematically analyzed each province's spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of green finance and energy structure transformation by constructing a fixed effect model, a GMM model, an intermediary effect model, and a spatial Dubin model. We empirically tested the effect direction, internal mechanism, spatial spillover, and regional heterogeneity of green finance development (GFD) on energy structure transformation (EST) to investigate the low-carbon transformation of energy structures. The findings indicate the following:(1) Green finance plays a positive role in promoting the transformation and development of China's energy structure. (2) The influence of green finance development on the transformation of China's energy structure has significant spatial spillover, exhibiting “local and neighborhood” reciprocity. Through the spatial spillover effect, green finance can encourage the low-carbon transformation of local energy structures and increase the level of low-carbon transformation in neighboring areas. (3) The improvement of the level of green technology innovation and the intensity of environmental regulations are essential channels for green finance to support the low-carbon transformation of the energy structure, and regional heterogeneity will alter this transmission mechanism. The findings of this study provide empirical evidence for the vital role of green finance in achieving the double dividend of economic growth and low-carbon emission reduction. This study provides a new perspective for constructing a green finance system and advancing the dual-carbon objective and a resource for formulating effective regional energy transformation policies.