Carbon emission calculation and uncertainty analysis of asphalt concrete during the production stage

Asphalt concrete is the main material consumed by road engineering. At present, there is no uniform standard for determining the carbon emissions of different types of asphalt concrete, and the calculation process is uncertain. In this study, a carbon emission calculation method that combines theory with practice is proposed. First, a theoretical carbon emission model based on the heat balance equation and an actual carbon emission model based on actual energy data are established, and the key links in the carbon emissions of asphalt concrete are determined. Second, the carbon emission correction factors of five different types of asphalt concrete are obtained to estimate the actual carbon emissions more accurately. Finally, the uncertainty of the parameters is evaluated and characterized via the DQI-Monte Carlo simulation method. The results show that the carbon emissions from large to small are modified asphalt concrete (MAC) > ordinary asphalt concrete (AC) > stone matrix asphalt (SMA) > recycled asphalt concrete (ZAC) > warm mix asphalt concrete (WAC). The aggregate heating stage is the key link in the carbon emission of asphalt concrete. Controlling the aggregate heating temperature and moisture content is the most direct and efficient energy savings and emission reduction measure.