The Curse of Plenty: The Green Revolution and the Rise in Chronic Disease

The rising rate of chronic disease is a leading driver of the global disease burden. Yet, its determinants are not fully understood. Exploiting the Green Revolution and its expansion in historically groundwater-rich Indian districts, we examine the unanticipated contribution of agricultural productivity growth to the rise in chronic, diet-related diseases. We find that areas with greater adoption of new staple varieties saw an increase in diabetes in men born after the introduction of high-yield crops. We find suggestive evidence that diet is an important mechanism, such as heterogeneous impacts with respect to dietary habits and increases in household calorie consumption. (JEL I12, O13, O15, O31, Q12, Q16)