A simple algorithm for yield estimates: Evaluation for semi-arid irrigated winter wheat monitored with green leaf area index

In this study we investigated the perspective offered by coupling a simple vegetation growth model and ground-based remotely-sensed data for the monitoring of wheat production. A simple model was developed to simulate the time courses of green leaf area index (GLAI), dry above-ground phytomass (DAM) and grain yield (GY). A comprehensive sensitivity analysis has allowed addressing the problem of model calibration, distinguishing three categories of parameters: (1) those, well known, derived from the present or previous wheat experiments; (2) those, phenological, which have been identified for the wheat variety under study; (3) those, related to farmer practices, which has been adjusted field by field. The approach was tested against field data collected on irrigated winter wheat in the semi-arid Marrakech plain. This data set includes estimates of GLAI with additional DAM and GY measurements. The model provides excellent simulations of both GLAI and DAM time courses. GY space variations are correctly predicted, but with a general underestimation on the validation fields. Despite this limitation, the approach offers the advantage of being quite simple, without requiring any data on agricultural practices (sowing, irrigation and fertilisation). This makes it very attractive for operational application at a regional scale. This perspective is discussed in the conclusion.