A predictive model for Arias intensity at multiple sites and consideration of spatial correlations

SUMMARY Arias intensity, I a , has been identified as an efficient intensity measure for the estimation of earthquake‐induced losses. In this paper, a new model for the prediction of Arias intensity, which incorporates nonlinear site response through the use of the average shear‐wave velocity and a heteroskedastic variance structure, is proposed. In order to estimate the effects of ground motions on spatially‐distributed systems, it is important to take into account the spatial correlation of the intensity measure. However, existing loss‐estimation models, which use I a as an input, do not take this aspect of the ground motion into account. Therefore, the potential to model the spatial correlation of Arias intensity is also investigated. The empirical predictive model is developed using recordings from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center Next Generation of Attenuation database whereas the model for spatial correlation makes use of the well‐recorded events from this database, that is the Northridge and Chi‐Chi earthquakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.