Predictors and patterns of recurrence after radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma within up-to-seven criteria: A multicenter retrospective study

Purpose To determine the risk factors and patterns of recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) meeting the up-to-seven criteria and to develop a nomogram to predict the recurrence free survival (RFS). Materials and methods This retrospective study included 481 HCC patients meeting the up-to-seven criteria and who received RFA as the primary therapy at three Chinese hospitals from January 2013 to December 2016. All clinical variables were assessed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses and a nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of RFS. Results The recurrence rate was 50.7 % (244/481). Age > 60 years, male gender, and multiple tumors were independent risk factors of recurrence. The incidence of early and late recurrence was 68.03 % (n = 166) and 31.97 % (n = 78), respectively. Seven patterns of spatial recurrence were identified: local tumor progression (LTP) alone (n = 18, 7.38 %), intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR) alone (n = 136, 55.74 %), extrahepatic recurrence (ER) alone (n = 21, 8.61 %), IDR + ER (n = 45, 18.44 %), LTP + IDR (n = 16, 6.56 %), LTP + ER (n = 4, 1.64 %) and LTP + IDR + ER (n = 4, 1.64 %). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year RFS rates were 79.63 %, 65.23 %, and 51.03 %, respectively. A well-discriminated and calibrated nomogram was constructed. Conclusions The factors affecting recurrence after RFA were age, gender, and the number of tumors. IDR was the most common type of recurrence after complete ablation.