Balance of power, balance of alignment, and China’s role in the regional order transition

AbstractThe Indo-Pacific region has become a central focus of great power competition. Not surprisingly, a rising China seeks to play an important, if not a leading role in the transformation of Asia’s present regional order. The United States, meanwhile, as the unipole, has strong incentives to prevent the rise of a peer competitor. Facing certain structural and domestic constraints, China is disinclined to resort to the strategy of violent revision or subversion historically pursued by previous rising powers. Instead, China has pursued a gradual change of the existing regional order through a combination of internal balancing and external reassurance strategies. Specifically, China’s quest for great power status in the region, particularly in response to the Indo-Pacific strategy adopted by the United States since the Trump administration, has prompted its proactive shift to counterbalance the US’ vision of order in the region. This paper argues that the balance of power and the balance of alignment constitute two key variables that affect the prospect of Sino-US competition for a preferable regional order. Beijing’s balancing strategies have significantly enhanced its economic and military capabilities, reducing the gap with the United States on the one hand and attracted certain regional states to join China-led regional initiatives on the other. However, owing to the complex balancing dynamics in the region and the agency of small and middle powers, the balance of alignment supports neither American nor Chinese dominance of Asia. Contrary to the ‘new Cold War’ narrative, the contest for order does not entail dividing the region into two rival blocs, but rather creating certain overlapping groupings and coalitions led by the two great powers. It consequently also signifies that the current order transition under a new bipolarity will be prolonged and relatively stable compared to the Cold War bipolarity.KEYWORDS: Order transitionSino-US competitionbipolaritybalance of powerbalance of alignmentIndo-Pacific AcknowledgementsThe author would like to express sincere appreciation to Kai He, Huiyun Feng, Oriana Skylar Mastro and other participants for their helpful comments at the ‘Navigating International Order Transition Workshop’ funded by the Korea Foundation and organized by the Center for Governance and Public Policy, Griffith University.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.Additional informationNotes on contributorsFeng LiuFeng Liu is Professor at the Department of International Relations, School of Tsinghua University. His current research interests focus on international relations theory, international relations in East Asia and China’s foreign policy.