Analysis of Stroke Burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and Projections for the Next Decade

Introduction: This study aims to describe the temporal trends of stroke burden in different age and sex groups in China from 1990 to 2021, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and to compare these data with global figures. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 1990 to 2021, we analyzed changes in stroke burden in China and globally. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using Joinpoint software to reflect trends. Stroke burden differences across various age groups and sexes were compared, and the ARIMA model was utilized for future projections. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of stroke in China decreased from 226.938 to 204.753 per 100,000, while the global ASIR decreased from 180.973 to 141.553 per 100,000. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) in China increased from 1167.425 to 1301.42 per 100,000, whereas the global ASPR decreased from 1201.111 to 1099.31 per 100,000. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in China fell from 242.18 to 138.029 per 100,000, while the global ASMR decreased from 144.313 to 87.454 per 100,000. China's age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) declined from 4834.791 to 2648.025 per 100,000, whereas the global ASDR decreased from 3078.952 to 1886.196 per 100,000. The AAPCs for ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR in China were -0.370%, 0.326%, -1.793%, and -1.933%, respectively, compared to -0.291%, -0.807%, -1.601%, and -1.570% globally from 1990 to 2021. Age and sex significantly influenced the stroke burden, with higher incidence and mortality rates in males than in females. Projections for the next decade indicate that stroke incidence in China will remain stable, with an expected rise in ASPR, and declines in ASMR and ASDR. Globally, ASIR is expected to decline, while ASPR will rise, and ASMR and ASDR will continue to decrease. Conclusion: From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, mortality, and DALYs of stroke in China have decreased, while the prevalence has increased. Stroke burden is age-related, with higher prevalence in older adults and higher mortality in the elderly. Males are more susceptible to stroke and have a higher risk of death. Over the next decade, stroke prevalence in China is expected to rise, posing challenges due to population aging, even as mortality and disability rates decline. Sustained public health efforts will be necessary.