Exploring the impact of incentive policy on the development of prefabricated buildings: a scenario-based system dynamics model

Purpose The development of prefabricated buildings has become one of the primary solutions to transform the traditional construction industry around the world. Incentive policy is one of the important driving factors for the development of prefabricated building. The policy system in the field of prefabricated buildings needs to be improved urgently. However, there is still a dearth of research on how incentive policies exert impact on the development of prefabricated buildings. This paper aims to reveal the impact mechanisms of different types of policies on the development system of prefabricated buildings. Design/methodology/approach This study categorizes prefabricated building policies, constructs a system dynamics model of prefabricated building policies and conducts scenario simulations to examine the impact and sensitivity of different types of policies on the development system of prefabricated buildings. Findings The results show that compulsory policies play a greater role in the early stage of prefabricated building development and need to be withdrawn at the right time. Preferential and encouraging policies play an incentive role in the middle and later stages of prefabricated building development. Encouraging policies predominate in the later stage of prefabricated building development. Based on the research results, policy recommendations for prefabricated building development are put forward respectively from the government, developers and consumers. Originality/value The research results are expected to make up for the lack of clear policies paths in existing research and provide theoretical references for the formulation and optimization of future policies.