Scarcity and quality risks for future global urban water supply

稀缺 景观生态学 自然保护 环境规划 可持续发展 质量(理念) 缺水 环境资源管理 自然资源经济学 环境科学 业务 生态学 水资源 经济 生物 哲学 认识论 栖息地 微观经济学
作者
Zhifeng Liu,Jiahe Ying,Chunyang He,Dongjie Guan,Xinhao Pan,Yihua Dai,Binghua Gong,Keren He,Caifeng Lv,Xin Wang,Jingyu Lin,Yanxu Liu,Brett A. Bryan
出处
期刊:Landscape Ecology [Springer Science+Business Media]
卷期号:39 (2) 被引量:5
标识
DOI:10.1007/s10980-024-01832-0
摘要

Abstract Context Supply of freshwater to the world’s cities is increasingly affected by human pressures and climate change. Understanding the effects of human pressures and climate change on global urban water scarcity and quality risks in an integrated way is important. Objectives The objective of this study is to assess the scarcity and quality risks to water security for 304 large cities (population > 1 million) across the world for 2015 and 2050. Methods We assessed the water scarcity according to water demand and availability, and evaluated the quality of water supply in terms of the population density, cropland fertilization, and landscape patterns in source watersheds. In addition, the impacts of human pressures and climate change on urban water risks were quantified using contribution analysis. Results We found that about 90% of these cities faced water risks in 2015. The number of cities facing quality risk was about three times the number of cities facing scarcity risk, and nearly a quarter faced dual risks. From 2015 to 2050, 88.8–99.7% of cities were projected to face rising water risks with about one-third facing dual risks by 2050. Increase in water demand was the main cause of rising scarcity risk; growth in population and crop fertilization in source watersheds were the main reasons for rising quality risk. Conclusions There is an urgent need to promote landscape conservation of urban water source areas, implement sustainable urban water planning and governance, improve water supply infrastructure, and refine ecological compensation regimes to achieve global urban water security.
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