Modelling future climate effects on N2O emission and soil carbon storage in maize fields under controlled-release urea and straw incorporation

Controlled-release urea application and straw incorporation have been conducted in recent years as environmental-friendly and sustainable farming strategies, but the long-term effects of controlled-release urea application and combination with straw on the dryland maize yield, soil fertility and the environment under future climate scenarios remain unclear. Hence, based on a six-year field experiment, four treatments were used to calibrate and validate the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model, including non-nitrogen (CK), split applications of conventional urea (UR), single basal application of conventional urea and controlled-release urea at a ratio of 2:1 (CU), and CU combined with straw (CUS). Subsequently, coupled the well-validated model with future climate to evaluate suitable agricultural production practices under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)-SSP245 and SSP585. The validation results indicated a good fit between the simulated and observed data of greenhouse gas emissions, soil organic carbon (SOC) contents and maize yields. With the anticipation of warmer temperatures and increased precipitation in the future, the yields of UR, CU, and CUS treatment significantly rose. Under SSP585 scenario, the positive impacts of CU treatment on maize yields reduced after the 2050s, exhibiting an average decline of 12.03%. Compared with the UR treatment, the CU treatment markedly reduced cumulative N2O emissions, and both treatments maintained the original state of SOC storages in the 2030s, furthermore, the CUS treatment reduced N2O emissions by 47.10%, 35.07%, 23.80% and 10.04% in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s, respectively. SOC storages for the CUS treatment gradually increased with an average of 464.58, 350.22, 250.87 and 177.75 kg C ha−1 y−1 for two SSP scenarios in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s, which excellently offset the CO2 equivalent of emissions caused by N2O emissions. Therefore, in dryland maize production, combined controlled-release urea with straw incorporation could achieve the best comprehensive effect among increase of yield, improvement of SOC storages and alleviation of greenhouse gas emissions under future climate scenario.