[Prediction of potential suitable habitats of Haemphysalis concinna in Heilongjiang Province based on the maximum entropy model].

To predict the potential suitable habitat of Haemaphysalis concinna in Heilongjiang Province under different climatic scenarios.The geographic locations of ticks in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2022 were captured from literature review and field ticks monitoring data from Harbin Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Heilongjiang Province, and the tick distribution sites with spatial correlations were removed using the software ArcGIS 10.2. The environment data under historical climatic scenarios from 1970 to 2000 and the climatic shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126 scenario model from 2021 to 2040 and from 2041 to 2060 were downloaded from the WorldClim website, and the elevation (1 km, 2010), population (1 km grid population dataset of China, 2010) and annual vegetation index (1 km, 2010) data were downloaded from the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Center, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The contribution of environmental factors to H. concinna distribution was evaluated and environmental variables were screened using the software MaxEnt 3.4.1 and R package 4.1.0, and the areas of suitable habitats of H. concinna and changes in center of gravity were analyzed using the maximum entropy model in Heilongjiang Province under different climatic scenarios. In addition, the accuracy of the maximum entropy model for prediction of H. concinna distribution was assessed using the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve.A total of 79 H. concinna distribution sites and 24 environmental variables were collected, and 70 H. concinna distribution sites and 9 environmental factors that contributed to distribution of the potential suitable habitats of H. concinna in Heilongjiang Province were screened. The three most significant contributing factors included precipitation seasonality, annual precipitation, and mean temperature of the driest quarter, with cumulative contributions of 60.7%. The total area of suitable habitats of H. concinna was 29.05 × 104 km2 in Heilongjiang Province under historical climatic scenarios, with the center of gravity of suitable habitats located at (47.31° N, 129.16° E), while the total area of suitable habitats of H. concinna reduced by 0.97 × 104 km2 in Heilongjiang Province under the climatic SSP126 scenario from 2041 to 2060, with the center of gravity shifting to (47.70° N, 129.28° E).The distribution of suitable habitats of H. concinna strongly correlates with temperature and humidity in Heilongjiang Province. The total area of potential suitable habitats of H. concinna may appear a tendency towards a decline with climatic changes in Heilongjiang Province, and high-, medium- and low-suitable habitats may shift.［摘要］目的 预测不同气候时期黑龙江省嗜群血蜱潜在适生区。方法 通过查阅文献和黑龙江省哈尔滨市疾病预防 控制中心蜱类现场监测数据, 获得1980—2022年黑龙江省蜱类分布点地理位置信息, 采用ArcGIS 10.2软件去除其中具 有空间相关性的分布点。从WorldClim网站下载1970—2000年历史气候情景环境数据及2021—2040年和2041—2060 年共享社会经济路径 (shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP) 126情景气候模型; 从中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心下 载海拔高度 (分辨率1 km, 2010年)、中国人口空间分布公里网格数据集 (分辨率1 km, 2010年) 和年度植被指数 (分辨率 1 km, 2010年) 等数据。采用MaxEnt 3.4.1和R 4.1.0软件预估环境因子贡献率、相关性分析并进行变量筛选; 采用最大熵 模型 (maximum entropy model, MaxEnt) 预测不同气候时期黑龙江省嗜群血蜱潜在适生区面积及重心变化。采用受试者 工作曲线 (receiver operating characteristic curve, ROC) 曲线下面积 (area under curve, AUC) 对模型预测结果精度进行评价。结果 共收集79个嗜群血蜱分布点及24个环境因子数据, 从中筛选出70个嗜群血蜱分布点及9个对黑龙江省嗜群血蜱 潜在适生区分布有影响的环境因子。其中降水量变异系数、年降水量、最干季度平均温度对模型贡献率居前3位, 累计贡 献率60.7%。历史气候时期, 黑龙江省嗜群血蜱总适生区面积为29.05 × 104 km2, 适生区重心位于 (47.31° N, 129.16° E)。在SSP126情景下至2041—2060年, 黑龙江省嗜群血蜱总适生区面积总体缩减0.97 × 104 km2, 适生区重心移至 (47.70° N, 129.28° E)。结论 黑龙江省嗜群血蜱潜在适生区分布与温度、湿度变化密切相关。随着气候变化, 黑龙江省嗜群血蜱 潜在适生区总面积可能呈下降趋势, 高、中、低度潜在适生区域可能发生地域转移。.