Assessing the effectiveness of nature-based solutions-strengthened urban planning mechanisms in forming flood-resilient cities

Cities have experienced rapid urbanization-induced harsh climatic events, especially flooding, inevitably resulting in negative and irreversible consequences for urban resilience and endangering residents' lives. Numerous studies have analyzed the effects of anthropogenic practices (land use changes and urbanization) on flood forecasting. However, non-structural mitigation's effectiveness, like Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), has yet to receive adequate attention, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which have become increasingly significant and indispensable for operationalizing cities efficiently. Therefore, our study investigated the predictive influence of incorporating one of the most common NBS strategies called low-impact development tools (LID) (such as rain gardens, bio-retention cells, green roofs, infiltration trenches, permeable pavement, and vegetative swale) during the urban planning of Alexandria, Egypt, which experiences the harshest rainfall annually and includes various urban patterns. City characteristics-dependent 14 LID scenarios were simulated with recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 100 years using the LID Treatment Train Tool (LID TTT), depending on calibrated data from 2015 to 2020, by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index and deterministic coefficient, and root-mean-square error with values of 0.97, 0.91, and 0.31, respectively. Our findings confirmed the significant effectiveness of combined LID tools on total flood runoff volume reduction by 73.7%, revealing that different urban patterns can be used in flood-prone cities, provided LID tools are considered in city planning besides grey infrastructure to achieve optimal mitigation. These results, which combined multiple disciplines and were not explicitly mentioned in similar studies in developing countries, may assist municipalities' policymakers in planning flood-resistant, sustainable cities.