A novel prognostic signature related to programmed cell death in osteosarcoma

Background Osteosarcoma primarily affects children and adolescents, with current clinical treatments often resulting in poor prognosis. There has been growing evidence linking programmed cell death (PCD) to the occurrence and progression of tumors. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of OS prognosis assessment by identifying PCD-related prognostic risk genes, constructing a PCD-based OS prognostic risk model, and characterizing the function of genes within this model. Method We retrieved osteosarcoma patient samples from TARGET and GEO databases, and manually curated literature to summarize 15 forms of programmed cell death. We collated 1621 PCD genes from literature sources as well as databases such as KEGG and GSEA. To construct our model, we integrated ten machine learning methods including Enet, Ridge, RSF, CoxBoost, plsRcox, survivalSVM, Lasso, SuperPC, StepCox, and GBM. The optimal model was chosen based on the average C-index, and named Osteosarcoma Programmed Cell Death Score (OS-PCDS). To validate the predictive performance of our model across different datasets, we employed three independent GEO validation sets. Moreover, we assessed mRNA and protein expression levels of the genes included in our model, and investigated their impact on proliferation, migration, and apoptosis of osteosarcoma cells by gene knockdown experiments. Result In our extensive analysis, we identified 30 prognostic risk genes associated with programmed cell death (PCD) in osteosarcoma (OS). To assess the predictive power of these genes, we computed the C-index for various combinations. The model that employed the random survival forest (RSF) algorithm demonstrated superior predictive performance, significantly outperforming traditional approaches. This optimal model included five key genes: MTM1, MLH1, CLTCL1, EDIL3, and SQLE. To validate the relevance of these genes, we analyzed their mRNA and protein expression levels, revealing significant disparities between osteosarcoma cells and normal tissue cells. Specifically, the expression levels of these genes were markedly altered in OS cells, suggesting their critical role in tumor progression. Further functional validation was performed through gene knockdown experiments in U2OS cells. Knockdown of three of these genes—CLTCL1, EDIL3, and SQLE—resulted in substantial changes in proliferation rate, migration capacity, and apoptosis rate of osteosarcoma cells. These findings underscore the pivotal roles of these genes in the pathophysiology of osteosarcoma and highlight their potential as therapeutic targets. Conclusion The five genes constituting the OS-PCDS model—CLTCL1, MTM1, MLH1, EDIL3, and SQLE—were found to significantly impact the proliferation, migration, and apoptosis of osteosarcoma cells, highlighting their potential as key prognostic markers and therapeutic targets. OS-PCDS enables accurate evaluation of the prognosis in patients with osteosarcoma.