Temperature and nutrients drive distinct successions between diatoms and dinoflagellates over the past 40 years: Implications for climate warming and eutrophication

Diatoms and dinoflagellates are two typical functional groups of phytoplankton, playing important roles in ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycles. Changes in diatoms and dinoflagellates are thought to be one of the possible mechanisms for the increase in harmful algal blooms (HABs), due to changing hydrological conditions associated with climate change and human activities. However, little is known about their ability to adapt to changing ocean environments, thus making it difficult to know whether and how they are adapting. By analyzing a 44-year monitoring dataset in the central Bohai Sea during 1978–2021, we found that the abundance ratio of diatoms to dinoflagellates showed a decreasing trend seasonally and ecologically, indicating that the phytoplankton community underwent distinct successional processes from diatom dominance to diatom-dinoflagellate co-dominance. These processes exhibited varying responses to temperature, nutrient concentrations and ratios, and their interactions, of which temperature primarily drove the seasonal succession whereas nutrients were responsible for the ecological succession. Specifically, diatoms showed a preference for lower temperatures and higher DIP concentrations, and were able to tolerate lower DIN at lower temperatures. In contrast, dinoflagellates tended to prevail at conditions of warming and high N/P ratios. These different traits of diatoms and dinoflagellates reflected the fact that warming as a result of rising temperature and eutrophication as a consequence of nutrient input would favor dinoflagellates over diatoms. Moreover, the increasing dominance of dinoflagellates indicated that dinoflagellate blooms were likely to become more frequent and intense in the central Bohai Sea.