Assessing the environmental impact of agricultural production structure transformation — Evidence from the non-grain production of cropland in China

Achieving low-carbon agricultural development is a requirement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A sustainable agricultural production structure not only ensures food security but also promotes efficient resource utilization and environmental protection. However, the current research has not yet assessed the environmental impact of the agricultural production structure transformation, particularly in relation to the non-grain production of cropland (NGPC). By calculating the carbon emission intensity (CEI) and NGPC in 338 cities across China from 2000 to 2021, this study analyzes their spatiotemporal characteristics. A Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model has been used to assess the environmental impact of the agricultural production structure transformation. The findings show a spatial correlation between NGPC and CEI, and the NGPC will exacerbate the CEI. In addition, variations exist in the impact of different grain production functional areas. The NGPC in the Production and Sales Balance Area (PSBA) and the Major Grain Production Area (MGPA) have led to an increase in the CEI, while the Major Grain Sales Area (MGSA) has had a contrasting impact. Assessing the environmental impact of agricultural production structure transformation at the city level can offer valuable insights for achieving sustainable transformation.