Development and evaluation of a novel noninvasive index for predicting significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B infection

Development of noninvasive liver fibrosis indexes has been research of interest due to the limitations of liver biopsy. Therefore, we aimed to develop and evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of a novel noninvasive index for predicting significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection based on age and routine clinical laboratory tests.A total of 396 treatment naïve liver biopsy performed patients were divided into training (n = 262) and validation cohorts (n = 134). Histological staging was assessed by Ishak fibrosis scoring system.In training cohort, we developed a novel fibrosis index, GAPI, using γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), age, platelet, and international normalized ratio (INR) results. The diagnostic accuracies of alanine aminotransferase ratio, age platelet index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, GGT to platelet ratio index, AST to lymphocyte ratio index, fibrosis index based on the four factors, Fibro Q, Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index, King's score, Pohl score, Wang I, fibrosis index, fibrosis cirrhosis index, cirrhosis discriminant score, Lok score, Doha score, Mehdi's model, GqHBsAg, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, platelet to lymphocyte ratio, RDW to lymphocyte ratio, RDW to platelet ratio, GGT/INR, GGT/albumin, white blood cell/platelet distribution width (PDW), mean platelet volume/PDW and platelet/PDW indexes were compared to GAPI index. For the prediction of significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of GAPI index were 0.776, 0.868, and 0.885 in training cohort, and 0.731, 0.883, and 0.919 in validation cohort, respectively. The AUROCs of the GAPI index were higher than those of the evaluated 27 noninvasive indexes to predict significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis.In resource limited settings, GAPI is a promising noninvasive liver fibrosis index for predicting significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis, and for decreasing the need for liver biopsy in patients with CHB infection using cutoff points of 2.00 and 3.50.