The comparison of prognostic value of tumour volumetric regression ratio and RECIST 1.1 criteria after induction chemotherapy in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

To compare the prognostic value of the sum volumetric regression ratio (SVRR) of the primary tumour and metastatic lymph nodes with treatment response based on RECIST 1.1 criteria after induction chemotherapy in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). A total of 117 stage III-IVA NPC patients treated with induction chemotherapy followed by concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) were retrospectively reviewed. The SVRR and the treatment response based on RECIST 1.1 were measured using contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) localisations before and after induction chemotherapy. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the optimal cutoff point of the SVRR and compare the prognostic value of the SVRR and RECIST 1.1criteria. The optimal cutoff points of SVRR for progression-free survival (PFS), locoregional failure-free survival (LRFFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) were all 25.15%, while for overall survival (OS) it was 16.63%. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of optimal cutoff points of SVRR was superior than that of RECIST 1.1 for PFS (AUC: 0.716 vs. 0.578; P = 0.0022), LRFFS (AUC: 0.700 vs. 0.574; P = 0.0080) and DMFS (AUC: 0.736 vs. 0.606; P = 0.0053), respectively. The 3-year PFS, DMFS and OS rates for SVRR less than vs. greater than or equal to the cutoff points were 55.8% vs. 92.2% (P < 0.001, hazard ratio (HR): 0.209, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.091–0.480), 59.7% vs. 96.7% (P < 0.001, HR: 0.120, 95% CI: 0.043–0.336) and 66.7% vs. 98.1% (P < 0.001, HR: 0.069, 95% CI: 0.014–0.342), while the responses [stable disease (SD), partial response (PR)] based on RECIST 1.1 were not significantly associated with 3-year survival rates. Multivariate analysis indicated that SVRR was an independent prognostic factor for PFS, DMFS and OS (all P < 0.05). The sum volumetric regression ratio and response based on RECIST 1.1 were related to the prognosis in locoregionally advanced NPC after induction chemotherapy. Sum volumetric regression ratio is an independent outcome predictor for survival in locoregionally advanced NPC, playing a better prognostic role than RECIST 1.1.