A mechanistic model is developed to predict the transition superficial gas velocity between bulk cooldown and crust-limited heat transfer regimes in a sparged molten pool with a coolant overlayer. The model has direct applications in the analysis of ex-vessel severe accidents, where molten corium interacts with concrete, thereby producing sparging concrete decomposition gases. The analysis approach embodies thermal, mechanical, and hydrodynamic aspects associated with incipient crust formation at the melt/coolant interface. The model is validated against experiment data obtained with water (melt) and liquid nitrogen (coolant) simulants. Predictions are then made for the critical gas velocity at which crust formation will occur for core material interacting with concrete in the presence of water.