Modeling the connectivity between sea scallop populations in the Middle Atlantic Bight and over Georges Bank

The dispersion and settlement of sea scallop larvae spawned on Georges Bank (GB) and in the Great Southern Channel (GSC) were explored using an individual-based population dynamics model. The model consisted of 4 pelagic life stages (egg, trochophore, veliger, and pediveliger) and 3 benthic life stages (juvenile, young adult, and adult). It was driven by the 1995 to 2005 hindcast flow field predicted by the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), with spawning stocks specified by field survey data. In 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2005, a large amount of larvae drifted southward along the shelf break to the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB). The potential for long-distance southward transport of larvae was dependent on the upstream flow conditions on the Nova Scotian Shelf, climate forcing, and the timing and location of spawning on GB. The model also predicts considerable larval exchange between the GB and the GSC subpopulations, with 83% of larvae settled in the GSC being spawned on GB, and 46% of larvae settled on GB being spawned in the GSC on average from 1995 to 2005.