The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand.This paper reviews demand modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP).We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socio-economic development, climate change and bioenergy expansion.In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59 to 98 percent between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54 percent from 2006 (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012).The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61 and 144 percent), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities.The results are more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios.When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9 percent for crops and 18 percent for livestock.The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is -6 percent at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.