Modeling complex effects of exposure to particulate matter and extreme heat during pregnancy on congenital heart defects: A U.S. population-based case-control study in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study

Research suggests gestational exposure to particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) and extreme heat may independently increase risk of birth defects. We investigated whether duration of gestational extreme heat exposure modifies associations between PM 2.5 exposure and specific congenital heart defects (CHDs). We also explored nonlinear exposure-outcome relationships. We identified CHD case children ( n = 2824) and non-malformed live-birth control children ( n = 4033) from pregnancies ending between 1999 and 2007 in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a U.S. population-based multicenter case-control study. We assigned mothers 6-week averages of PM 2.5 exposure during the cardiac critical period (postconceptional weeks 3–8) using the closest monitor within 50 km of maternal residence. We assigned a count of extreme heat days (EHDs, days above the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature for year, season, and weather station) during this period using the closest weather station. Using generalized additive models, we explored logit-nonlinear exposure-outcome relationships, concluding logistic models were reasonable. We estimated joint effects of PM 2.5 and EHDs on six CHDs using logistic regression models adjusted for mean dewpoint and maternal age, education, and race/ethnicity. We assessed multiplicative and additive effect modification. Conditional on the highest observed EHD count (15) and at least one critical period day during spring/summer, each 5 μg/m 3 increase in average PM 2.5 exposure was significantly associated with perimembranous ventricular septal defects (VSDpm; OR: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.01, 2.41]). High EHD counts (8+) in the same population were positively, but non-significantly, associated with both overall septal defects and VSDpm. Null or inverse associations were observed for lower EHD counts. Multiplicative and additive effect modification estimates were consistently positive in all septal models. Results provide limited evidence that duration of extreme heat exposure modifies the PM 2.5 -septal defects relationship. Future research with enhanced exposure assessment and modeling techniques could clarify these relationships. • Duration of extreme heat during pregnancy may modify the impact of air pollutants. • Potential nonlinear associations were assessed using generalized additive models. • Longer-duration heat exposure increased some PM 2.5 -heart defect associations.