Ecological restoration programs dominate vegetation greening in China

Many ecological restoration programs have been implemented in China during the last two decades. At the same time, the vegetation has turned green significantly in China. However, few studies have directly evaluated the contribution of the ecological restoration programs to vegetation greening in comparison with the contribution of climate change using high-resolution data of afforestation areas at the national scale. We used newly compiled high-resolution data on yearly forest plantation and mountain closure, the daily climate data from the 2480 meteorological stations and GIMMS 3g NDVI data. We used a multiple linear regression model to compare the influence of temperature, precipitation, and ecological restoration programs on NDVI dynamics. We then used the hierarchical variance partitioning method to evaluate the relative contribution of temperature, precipitation, and ecological restoration programs on NDVI dynamics. We found a significant greening trend in China from 1999 to 2015 with an annual increase rate of 0.0017 yr−1 in the mean growing season NDVI. The ecological restoration programs dominated the vegetation greening in northern China and the southern coastal regions, indicating a good performance of restoration programs in these regions. In contrast, temperature or precipitation dominated the vegetation greening in southwestern China, Inner Mongolia and the implementation regions of several ecological restoration programs in northeastern China. Among the ecological restoration programs except the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program, the effect of ecological restoration programs on vegetation greening was stronger than the total effects of temperature and precipitation changes. Our study presents a systematic assessment on the contribution of ecological restoration programs to the vegetation greening in China, accessed the role on vegetation greening of different ecosystem restoration programs. We analyzed the reasons for the differences in the contribution of different ecological restoration programs to vegetation greening and provided insights facilitating policy makers to prioritize future restoration planning.