Association Between the Atherosclerotic Disease Risk Score and Carotid Artery Stenosis

Background Carotid artery stenosis (CAS) is the most frequently detected treatable cause of ischemic stroke. However, there are no recommendations to screen asymptomatic patients. The atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score estimates individuals’ 10-year risk for developing cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study is to identify a relationship between the ASCVD risk score and moderate/severe CAS based on ultrasound findings. Materials and methods We performed a single-institution retrospective review of patients who underwent a surveillance ultrasound for CAS between 2015 and 2018. We used Strandness velocity criteria to separate patients into two cohorts: none to mild CAS (<50%) and moderate/severe CAS (≥50%). We performed Student's t-test, multivariate analysis, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine a relationship between the ASCVD risk score and degree of CAS. We evaluated a new risk score model based on stepwise logistic regression of significant variables on univariate analysis. Results Two thousand eight hundred and fifty-six patients with carotid ultrasounds (1623 with none to mild, 1161 with moderate, and 72 with severe disease) were included in the study. The ASCVD risk score significantly predicted moderate/severe CAS in an adjusted multivariate analysis. Each 10% increase in the ASCVD risk score corresponded to an additional 11% likelihood of moderate/severe stenosis (OR: 1.11 [1.04-1.20], P = 0.004). The ROC area under the curve for predicting moderate/severe CAS based on the ASCVD risk score was 0.59 (Youden index (J) = 0.14); the optimized ASCVD cutoff point was 28.4%. Our new atherosclerotic disease model demonstrated increased odds of moderate/severe CAS with scores greater than zero (ROC area under the curve = 0.57). Conclusions This is the first study to demonstrate an association between atherosclerotic disease risk factors as measured by the ASCVD risk score and moderate/severe CAS. However, this tool is not sensitive or specific for using the ASCVD risk score as a screening mechanism for moderate/severe CAS.