A deep convolutional neural network to predict the curve progression of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a pilot study

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a three-dimensional spinal deformity that predominantly occurs in girls. While skeletal growth and maturation influence the development of AIS, accurate prediction of curve progression remains difficult because the prognosis for deformity differs among individuals. The purpose of this study is to develop a new diagnostic platform using a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) that can predict the risk of scoliosis progression in patients with AIS.Fifty-eight patients with AIS (49 females and 9 males; mean age: 12.5 ± 1.4 years) and a Cobb angle between 10 and 25 degrees (mean angle: 18.7 ± 4.5) were divided into two groups: those whose Cobb angle increased by more than 10 degrees within two years (progression group, 28 patients) and those whose Cobb angle changed by less than 5 degrees (non-progression group, 30 patients). The X-ray images of three regions of interest (ROIs) (lung [ROI1], abdomen [ROI2], and total spine [ROI3]), were used as the source data for learning and prediction. Five spine surgeons also predicted the progression of scoliosis by reading the X-rays in a blinded manner.The prediction performance of the DCNN for AIS curve progression showed an accuracy of 69% and an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.70 using ROI3 images, whereas the diagnostic performance of the spine surgeons showed inferior at 47%. Transfer learning with a pretrained DCNN contributed to improved prediction accuracy.Our developed method to predict the risk of scoliosis progression in AIS by using a DCNN could be a valuable tool in decision-making for therapeutic interventions for AIS.