Decoupling carbon emissions from the economy and low-carbon ecological city construction-based on 196 cities in China

In pursuit of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, significant efforts have been directed towards economic, policy, and technical dimensions in China. This study mainly focuses on the decoupling of urban carbon emissions from economic development, and the low-carbon ecological cities construction (LCEC), aiming at the early realization of high-quality development of urban carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. We firstly calculated the Tapio decoupling index of economic development and carbon emission, and the construction level of low carbon ecological cities in 196 cities, then constructed a panel quantile regression model to empirically analyze the main influencing factors of the LCEC construction, and finally predicted the LCEC construction levels in 2030 by using a gray prediction model. The research results show that (1) the majority of the cities achieved carbon emissions decoupling between 2005 and 2019, although a few cities in the Northeast still exhibit negative decoupling. (2) The levels of LCEC construction are notably higher in the eastern and southern regions compared to the west and north, with cities showing higher LCEC levels also demonstrating more robust decoupling. (3) Promoting carbon reduction and economic development is crucial for enhancing the LCEC construction levels. However, there are regional differences in the impact factors such as housing investment, energy endowment, foreign investment, and environmental focus on the LCEC construction levels within each economic zone. Therefore, each economic zone should formulate tailored development strategies based on its unique characteristics. (4) The Grey prediction model predicts that 69 cities will achieve medium to high levels of LCEC construction by 2030. These results would provide policy recommendations for local governments to promote comprehensive and sustainable urban development.