Long-term fine particular exposure and incidence of frailty in older adults: findings from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey

医学 危险系数 置信区间 入射(几何) 老年学 比例危险模型 人口学 前瞻性队列研究 队列研究 长寿 疾病 队列 中国人口 环境卫生 内科学 物理 社会学 光学 生物化学 化学 基因型 基因
作者
Yuebin Lv,Ze Yang,Lihong Ye,Meijie Jiang,Jinhui Zhou,Yanbo Guo,Yidan Qiu,Xinwei Li,Chen Chen,Aipeng Ju,Jun Wang,Chenfeng Li,Yang Li,Jiaonan Wang,Juan Zhang,John S. Ji,Tiantian Li,Andrea A. Baccarelli,Xu Gao,Xiaoming Shi
出处
期刊:Age and Ageing [Oxford University Press]
卷期号:52 (2) 被引量:1
标识
DOI:10.1093/ageing/afad009
摘要

Abstract Background The association between fine particular matter (PM2.5) and frailty is less studied, and the national burden of PM2.5-related frailty in China is unknown. Objective To explore the association between PM2.5 exposure and incident frailty in older adults, and estimate the corresponding disease burden. Design Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 1998 to 2014. Setting Twenty-three provinces in China. Subjects A total of 25,047 participants aged ≥65-year-old. Methods Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate the association between PM2.5 and frailty in older adults. A method adapted from the Global Burden of Disease Study was used to calculate the PM2.5-related frailty disease burden. Results A total of 5,733 incidents of frailty were observed during 107,814.8 person-years follow-up. A 10 μg/m3 increment of PM2.5 was associated with a 5.0% increase in the risk of frailty (Hazard Ratio = 1.05, 95% confidence interval = [1.03–1.07]). Monotonic, but non-linear exposure-response, relationships of PM2.5 with risk of frailty were observed, and slopes were steeper at concentrations >50 μg/m³. Considering the interaction between population ageing and mitigation of PM2.5, the PM2.5-related frailty cases were almost unchanged in 2010, 2020 and 2030, with estimations of 664,097, 730,858 and 665,169, respectively. Conclusions This nation-wide prospective cohort study showed a positive association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and frailty incidence. The estimated disease burden indicated that implementing clean air actions may prevent frailty and substantially offset the burden of population ageing worldwide.
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