满意选择
启发式
时限
极限(数学)
冒险
风险分析(工程)
结果(博弈论)
精算学
计算机科学
运筹学
运营管理
心理学
经济
工程类
业务
社会心理学
微观经济学
数学
人工智能
数学分析
管理
操作系统
作者
Ehsan Taheri,Chen Wang,Elmira Zahmat Doost
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103832
摘要
We investigate emergency decision-making behaviors in the face of life losses under an uncertain time limit. We design a behavioral experiment with the background of a hypothetical disaster to investigate the subjects' decision strategies. We find that prior experience affects a subject's estimation and actual consumption of time on comparing the rescue options in the following disaster. We also observe a risk shift that when an uncertain time limit is imposed, most risk-averse subjects with no time limit exhibit risk-taking behaviors. Moreover, under more intense time pressure, subjects are more likely to adopt heuristics such as seeking the best outcome with the highest probability, seeking the best while avoiding the unacceptable worst, and achieving a satisficing result with a target probability. As time pressure relaxes, most subjects perform actuarial calculations to compare the available options. We recommend emergency managers to be cautioned against the anchoring effect of prior experience and the heuristics of seeking the possibility of saving more people (which could pose an unwarranted risk).
科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI