Tumor-agnostic plasma assay for circulating tumor DNA detects minimal residual disease and predicts outcome in locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

Forty to fifty percent of patients with locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (LA SCCHN) relapse despite multimodal treatment. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has the potential to detect minimal residual disease (MRD) after curative-intent therapy and to identify earlier which patients will progress. We developed a tumor-agnostic plasma ctDNA assay to detect MRD in unselected LA SCCHN with the aim of predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival without the need for tumor sequencing.A 26-gene next-generation sequencing panel was constructed that included the most frequently mutated genes in SCCHN and two HPV-16 genes. MRD was assessed in each patient through an in-house informatic workflow informed by somatic mutations identified in the corresponding pre-treatment plasma sample. The presence of MRD was defined as the detection of ctDNA in one plasma sample collected within 1-12 weeks of the end of curative treatment. The primary endpoint was the PFS rate at 2 years. At least 32 patients were planned for inclusion with the hypothesis that PFS at 2 years was >80% in MRD-negative patients and <30% in MRD-positive patients (α = 0.05, β = 0.9).We sequenced DNA from 116 plasma samples derived from 53 LA SCCHN patients who underwent curative-intent treatment. ctDNA was detected in 41/53 (77%) patients in the pre-treatment samples. Out of these 41 patients, 17 (41%) were MRD positive after treatment. The 2-year PFS rate was 23.53% (9.9% to 55.4%) and 86.6% (73.4% to 100%) in MRD-positive and MRD-negative patients, respectively (P < 0.05). Median survival was 28.37 months (14.30 months-not estimable) for MRD-positive patients and was not reached for the MRD-negative cohort (P = 0.011).Our ctDNA assay detects MRD in LA SCCHN and predicts disease progression and survival without the need for tumor sequencing, making this approach easily applicable in daily practice.