The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive energy transition: Empirical evidence from China

What are the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Are there other effects besides leading to an energy crisis? We analyze the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, and then on the Chinese automotive energy structure, based on data of Chinese NEV sales from March 2016 to August 2022, using the Chow test and ordinary least squares (OLS). The results show that, first, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused a structural and abrupt increase in the sales of NEVs in China, which had a positive impact on the automotive energy structure in China. Second, compared to the impact on battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are less affected by their ability to run on both oil and electricity. Third, the boosting effect is mainly realized through the change in the relative price of oil and electricity. Lastly, the positive impact further accelerates the transformation of China's automotive energy and transportation sectors and helps China achieve its dual carbon target at an early date. Overall, this study reveals the positive impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on China's automotive energy transition, providing policy insights for the development of the NEV industry.