Accurate measurement techniques and prediction approaches for the in-situ rock stress

Abstract The precise calculation and evaluation of the in-situ rock stress tensor is a crucial factor in addressing the major challenges related to subsurface engineering applications and earth science research. To improve the accuracy of in-situ stress measurement and prediction, an improved overcoring technique involving a measurement circuit, temperature compensation, and calculation method is presented for accurately measuring the in-situ rock stress tensor. Furthermore, an embedded grey BP neural network (GM–BPNN) model is established for predicting in-situ rock stress values. The results indicate that the improved overcoring technique has significantly improved the stress measurement accuracy, and a large number of valuable stress data obtained from many mines have proved the testing performance of this technique. Moreover, the mean relative errors of the prediction results of GM(0, 1) for the three principal stresses all reach 6–30%, and the accuracy of the model fails to meet the requirements. The average relative errors of the prediction results of the BPNN model are all less than 10%, and the model accuracy meets the requirements and has sufficient credibility. Compared with the GM and BPNN models, the embedded GM–BPNN model produces the best results, with mean relative errors of 0.0001–4.8338%. The embedded GM–BPNN model fully utilizes the characteristics of grey theory and BP neural network, which require a small sample size, weaken the randomness of the original data, and gradually approach the accuracy of the model, making it particularly suitable for situations with limited stress data.