Research on the change of China’s elderly service policies—An empirical analysis based on 117 policy texts

Population aging has emerged as a significant global concern. This article analyzes 117 policy texts in China since the reform and opening-up, borrowing Rothwell and Zegveld’s classic policy instrument theory to create a two-dimensional analysis framework. The X-dimension of the framework represents the three fundamental policy tools of supply, environment, and demand, while the Y-dimension consists of internal elements such as service subjects, service targets, service content and methods, and guarantee measures. Using this framework, the elderly service policies are categorized into three stages: the budding stage, the developing stage, and the perfecting stage. The study finds that China’s elderly service policies are primarily driven by environment-type tools, with supply-type and demand-type tools serving as secondary tools. The policy system is structurally imbalanced as a result. Over the long term, the trend is towards an increasing number of issuing subjects for Chinese elderly service policies. Moreover, the number of policies jointly issued by different departments is gradually increasing, and the issuing subjects are becoming increasingly diverse. The positioning of responsibilities among government, market, society, and family has been optimized, and the role of the government is becoming more rationalized.