Study of identification and simulation of ecological zoning through integration of landscape ecological risk and ecosystem service value

Rapid urbanization has caused numerous environmental issues, constraining regional sustainable development. Constructing ecological zoning is conducive to scientific ecological protection and management. Taking the Anhui section of the water and soil conservation functional area in the Dabie Mountains of China as an example, this study calculated the ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LER) from 2000 to 2020 using the value equivalent method and the landscape ecological risk index, respectively, and analyzed their spatio-temporal evolution characteristics. Considering the vulnerability of ecosystem and its service functions, four types of ecological zones were constructed based on ESV and LER, and the PLUS model was used to predict the ecological zones in 2030 and 2040. The results indicated that: (1) The main land use type in the study area was forestland, accounting for 75% of the total area. During the study period, the most significant increase in land use was observed in cropland, with an increase of 268.03 km2, while the most significant decrease was in grassland, with a total reduction of 645.26 km2. (2) Low and medium-low ecological risk areas were the main LER types in the study area, accounting for approximately 85% of the total area. The LER gradually shifted towards medium-high risk areas, showing a slight upward trend. The ESV showed a continuous increasing trend, with a total increase of 2.34 billion yuan. The ESV was dominated by medium ESV, and the area was expanding. (3) The ecological zoning was primarily dominated by ecological conservation areas, with a rapid expansion of 21.83%. In contrast, the ecological protection areas had the smallest area and the largest decrease, reaching 48.55%. It was expected that the spatial distribution of ecological zones will remain similar to that of 2020 from 2030 to 2040, with the largest decrease in the area of ecological conservation zones. The accelerating urbanization process may be the main reason for this phenomenon.