A water-energy-food-carbon nexus optimization model for sustainable agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin under uncertainty

Water scarcity, limited land resources and global warming are the most challenging issues facing sustainable agricultural development, and modern agriculture requires efficient and environmentally friendly agricultural water and land management practices. This paper proposes a water-energy-food-carbon nexus system optimization model, which aims to formulate a scientific and rational water and land resource allocation strategy for sustainable agricultural development to increase irrigation water productivity, reduce carbon emissions and enhance regional agriculture competitiveness. First, the carbon footprint life cycle assessment method was used to measure carbon sinks and carbon emissions across the ecosystem. Second, a multiobjective nonlinear programming model with the goal of maximizing irrigation water productivity, minimizing carbon emissions, and maximizing the competitiveness of low-carbon agriculture is established. Finally, an empirical study is performed in the Yellow River Basin, and an elitist nondominated sorting genetic algorithm is used to solve the model. The research results show that the water-energy-food-carbon nexus system optimization model based on uncertain conditions established in this paper, can maximize resource utilization efficiency and effectively measure the impact of regional agricultural production on the environment. It has reference significance for the realization of carbon neutrality in the region.