Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Abstract Fires are now raging longer and more intensely in many regions worldwide. However, non-linear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management, and ignitions so far impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here we show that climate change is increasingly explaining regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. Climate change has increased global burned area by 16% for the period 2003–2019, and raised the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 43%. Climate change-induced burned area increased in most regions, including those recently struck by extreme fire like Australia, South America and Siberia. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area is rising by 0.22%year − 1 globally, with the largest increase in Central Australia (2.5%year − 1 ). Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained greenhouse gas emission reductions to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.