Plasma-only circulating tumor DNA analysis detects minimal residual disease and predicts early relapse in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing curative resection

Background Minimal residual disease (MRD) is considered an essential factor leading to relapse within 2 years (early relapse) after radical surgery, which is challenging to be detected by conventional imaging. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) provides a novel approach for detecting MRD and predicting clinical outcomes. Here, we tried to construct a fixed panel for plasma-only ctDNA NGS to enable tumor-uninformed MRD detection in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods Here, we performed the followings: (i) profiling genomic alteration spectrum of ctDNA from the Chinese HCC cohort consisting of 493 individuals by NGS; (ii) screening of MRD monitoring genes; and (iii) performance evaluation of MRD monitoring genes in predicting early relapse in the ZJZS2020 cohort comprising 20 HCC patients who underwent curative resection. Results A total of 493 plasma samples from the Chinese HCC cohort were detected using a 381/733-gene NGS panel to characterize the mutational spectrum of ctDNA. Most patients (94.1%, 464/493) had at least one mutation in ctDNA. The variants fell most frequently in TP53 (45.1%), LRP1B (20.2%), TERT (20.2%), FAT1 (16.2%), and CTNNB1 (13.4%). By customized filtering strategy, 13 MRD monitoring genes were identified, and any plasma sample with one or more MRD monitoring gene mutations was considered MRD-positive. In the ZJZS2020 cohort, MRD positivity presented a sensitivity of 75% (6/8) and a specificity of 100% (6/6) in identifying early postoperative relapse. The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a significantly short relapse-free survival (RFS; median RFS, 4.2 months vs . NR, P=0.002) in the MRD-positive patients versus those with MRD negativity. Cox regression analyses revealed MRD positivity as an independent predictor of poor RFS (HR 13.00, 95% CI 2.60-69.00, P=0.002). Conclusions We successfully developed a 13-gene panel for plasma-only MRD detection, which was effective and convenient for predicting the risk of early postoperative relapse in HCC.