已入深夜,您辛苦了!由于当前在线用户较少,发布求助请尽量完整地填写文献信息,科研通机器人24小时在线,伴您度过漫漫科研夜!祝你早点完成任务,早点休息,好梦!

Simulation of future land use/cover change (LUCC) in typical watersheds of arid regions under multiple scenarios

干旱 可持续发展 土地利用 土地覆盖 环境科学 驱动因素 环境资源管理 专题地图 土地开发 土地利用、土地利用的变化和林业 水文学(农业) 水资源管理 地理 生态学 地图学 土木工程 中国 地质学 工程类 岩土工程 考古 生物
作者
Qingzheng Wang,Qingyu Guan,Yunfan Sun,Qinqin Du,Xiong Xiao,Haiping Luo,Jun Zhang,Jimin Mi
出处
期刊:Journal of Environmental Management [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:335: 117543-117543 被引量:63
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117543
摘要

The rapid development of the social economy has promoted a continuous increase in the intensity and scale of land use by humans, which has seriously affected the sustainable development of the region. It is important to understand the land use/cover change (LUCC) in the arid region and its future development trends and to make reasonable planning recommendations for the sustainable development of the ecological environment. This study validates the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in a typical arid region, the Shiyang River Basin (SRB), and analyzes the applicability of the model in arid regions. On this basis, the PLUS model is combined with the scenario analysis method to design four scenarios including no policy intervention, farmland protection, ecological protection and sustainable development to analyze the dynamic changes in past and future land use in the SRB and to make corresponding planning recommendations for the development of each type of land use in the arid region. The results showed that the PLUS model had a better simulation effect in the SRB (its overall accuracy reached 0.97). Coupled models obtain better simulation results than quantitative and spatial models by comparing the mainstream models, with PLUS model that combines CA model and patch generation strategy showing better simulation results in the same category. From 1987 to 2017, the spatial centroid of each LUCC in the SRB moved to varying degrees due to a continuous increase in human activities. The spatial centroid of water bodies had the most obvious change, with a moving speed of 1.49 km/a, while the moving speed of built-up land increased year by year. The spatial centroid of farmland, built-up land and unused land all shifted toward the middle and lower plains, which is a further indication of increased human activity. Due to different government policies, the development trend of land use was also different under different scenarios. However, the four scenarios all showed that the area of built-up land will be increasing exponentially from 2017 to 2037, which would seriously affect the surrounding ecological land and have a negative impact on the local agro-ecological environment. Therefore, we proposed the following planning recommendations: (1) Land leveling work should be carried out on scattered farmland located at high altitudes and with slopes over 25°. Additionally, the land use of low-altitude areas should strictly adhere to basic farmland, increase the diversification of cropping patterns and improve the efficiency of agricultural water. (2) The relationship between ecology, farmland and cities should be reasonably coordinated and the existing idle built-up land should be efficiently used. (3) Forestland and grassland resources should be strictly protected and the ecological redline should be strictly observed. This study can provide new ideas for LUCC modeling and prediction in other parts of the world and provide a strong basis for ecological management and sustainable development in arid areas.
最长约 10秒,即可获得该文献文件

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
2秒前
香蕉觅云应助爻解采纳,获得10
3秒前
3秒前
李健应助胡林采纳,获得10
5秒前
纸鸢发布了新的文献求助10
5秒前
打打应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
5秒前
5秒前
科研通AI5应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
5秒前
5秒前
orixero应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
5秒前
Smile发布了新的文献求助30
5秒前
利物鸟贝拉完成签到,获得积分10
6秒前
6秒前
hyr发布了新的文献求助10
7秒前
ohh发布了新的文献求助10
7秒前
Lamis完成签到 ,获得积分10
8秒前
17852573662完成签到,获得积分10
8秒前
9秒前
羊绮完成签到,获得积分10
10秒前
犇骉完成签到,获得积分10
10秒前
科目三应助kylin采纳,获得10
11秒前
12秒前
研友_QLXYgn发布了新的文献求助10
13秒前
汉堡包应助小方采纳,获得10
13秒前
14秒前
15秒前
kmkm发布了新的文献求助10
15秒前
乐乐应助快来和姐妹玩采纳,获得30
15秒前
lei完成签到,获得积分10
16秒前
胡林发布了新的文献求助10
18秒前
Smile完成签到,获得积分10
19秒前
李健应助豆豆欢欢乐采纳,获得10
20秒前
徐徐发布了新的文献求助10
21秒前
22秒前
故城完成签到 ,获得积分10
26秒前
墨川完成签到,获得积分10
26秒前
sjxbjrndkd完成签到 ,获得积分10
27秒前
jimi完成签到,获得积分10
28秒前
30秒前
31秒前
高分求助中
A new approach to the extrapolation of accelerated life test data 1000
Picture Books with Same-sex Parented Families: Unintentional Censorship 700
ACSM’s Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription, 12th edition 500
Nucleophilic substitution in azasydnone-modified dinitroanisoles 500
不知道标题是什么 500
Indomethacinのヒトにおける経皮吸収 400
Phylogenetic study of the order Polydesmida (Myriapoda: Diplopoda) 370
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3976455
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3520548
关于积分的说明 11203850
捐赠科研通 3257210
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1798648
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 877835
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 806539