ECG-based machine learning model for AF identification in patients with first ischemic stroke

Background: The recurrence rate of strokes associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) can be substantially reduced through the administration of oral anticoagulants. However, previous studies have not demonstrated a clear benefit from the universal application of oral anticoagulants in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. Timely detection of AF remains a challenge in patients with stroke. Aim: This study aims to develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) model to accurately identify patients with AF using a 12-lead sinus-rhythm electrocardiogram (ECG) recorded around the time of the first ischemic stroke. Additionally, this study also evaluates the model’s ability to predict future occurrence of AF. Methods: A CNN model was trained with ECG data from patients at Taipei Veterans General Hospital. External validation was performed on ischemic stroke patients from National Taiwan University Hospital. The model's performance was assessed for detecting AF at the stroke event and predicting future AF occurrences. Results: The model demonstrated an area under curve (AUC) of 0.91 for internal validation and 0.69 for external validation in identifying AF at the stroke event, with sensitivity and negative predictive value both achieving 97%. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of patients without a prior diagnosis of AF revealed a significant increase in future AF incidence among the high-risk group identified by the model (adjusted hazard ratio: 4.06; 95% confidence interval: 2.74-6.00). Conclusions: The CNN model effectively identifies AF in stroke patients using 12-lead ECGs and predicts future AF events, facilitating early anticoagulation therapy and potentially reducing recurrent stroke risk. Further prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings.