Change in burden of disease in UK children and young people (0-24 years) over the past 20 years and estimation of potential burden in 2040: analysis using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data

Abstract Background The epidemiological transition and medical innovations have led to changes in causes of ill-health and disability by children and young people (CYP) in many wealthy countries over the past two decades. However this has not been systematically examined at a national level in the UK. Here we examined changes in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by cause for 0-24 year olds by age-group. Methods We used data on DALYS by cause, sex and age-group for the UK from 1998 to 2017 from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We modified the GBD cause-hierarchy to be more relevant to paediatrics. We assessed current causes of burden in 2017 and change at cause-level for 1998-2007 and 2008-2017 by age. We then used Holt-Winters doubly exponentiated time-series models to forecast change in DALYs by age to 2040. Results In 2017, neonatal and congenital disorders were the main causes of DALYS across 0-24 year olds, with other the other large causes being anxiety and depression, endocrine and immune disorders, and lower respiratory tract infections. Total DALYS were highest amongst neonates and lowest amongst 1-9 year olds, rising with age amongst 10-24 year olds. Between 1998-2017, total DALYs fell in each age-group, with the largest falls in infants. The greatest changes in DALYS from 2008 to 2017 were falls in neonatal and congenital causes amongst infants, falls in infectious diseases and injuries in older age-groups, and rises in neonatal causes, mental health, acne and somatic symptoms in all age-groups other than infants. These patterns were forecast to continue to 2040. Conclusions We forecast falls in causes that have historically dominated disease in CYP, particularly congenital disorders, infectious diseases, cancers and injuries, representing falls in the prevalence of many infectious diseases and improvements in road safety and also improvements in survival from cancer and many congenital conditions. Forecast increases in DALYS from mental health problems, other adolescent health issues and the consequences of neonatal survival, such as neuro-disability and epilepsy, have potential implications for the training of paediatricians and workforce needs over the next two decades. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and changes in child poverty require further research.