When it is Best to be Last: How Constructed Distributions Influence Sequential Judgments

When evaluating alternatives, individuals often view options in an ordered sequence. Prior studies investigating order effects have yielded conflicting results. In some cases, consumers prefer the first product they evaluate in a sequence (primacy effects); in others, they prefer the last product they evaluate in a sequence (recency effects). We introduce and test a novel theoretical framework: Constructed Distribution Theory. We show that individuals construct and revise reference distributions as they evaluate alternatives. Our theory explains how the underlying quality of alternatives moderates primacy and recency effects. Across five pre-registered experiments (N=2,773) and a field study (N=7,835), we demonstrate that people evaluate attractive options more favorably when they are presented last than when they are presented first. We also find that individuals are more enthusiastic about both their most preferred option and the entire choice set when they evaluate alternatives in ascending rather than descending quality order. Experience and expertise moderate, but do not eliminate, these patterns.