医学
DLCO公司
特发性肺纤维化
内科学
比例危险模型
危险系数
生存分析
阶段(地层学)
多元分析
对数秩检验
肺
扩散能力
置信区间
肺功能
古生物学
生物
作者
Maria Raquel Soares,Carlos Alberto de Castro Pereira,Rimarcs Gomes Ferreira,Ester Nei Aparecida Martins Coletta,Mariana Silva Lima,Karin Mueller Storrer
出处
期刊:PubMed
日期:2015-07-22
卷期号:32 (2): 121-8
被引量:5
摘要
Prediction models for survival at baseline evaluation have been proposed in IPF but some are difficult to use. The aim of present study was to develop a new mortality risk scoring system for patients with IPF at initial evaluation.One hundred twenty with definitive IPF were selected through a review of standardized medical records for interstitial lung diseases. Patients with resting SpO2<89% were excluded. Significant individual predictors we derived by a Cox proportional hazards model and transformed in categorical data according to cut-off points. Beta coefficients for each predictor were similar, so a score was created considering the sum of dichotomic (0 or 1) transformed variables.Median follow-up time was 37.5 months. At the end of follow-up, 80 patients had died. Independent predictors of mortality by multivariate analysis included dyspnea (at rest or to light or moderate activities), FVC<70%,FEV1/FVC>0.89 and DLCO ≤ 40%. Resting SpO2 and ExSpO2 were excluded in final analysis. The hazard ratios ranged from 1.95 for dyspnoea to 2.30 for DLCO. When the total score was 0 (Stage I, n=28), median survival time was 68 months; when 1 or 2 (Stage II, n=69), it was 45 months; and when 3 or 4 (Stage III, n=23), it was 19 months (log rank= 60.44, p<0.001).The score can separate IPF patients with high, intermediate and low survival.
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