Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change

Abstract Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds ( AIW s) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIW s from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with occurrence records and developed ecological niche models with Maxent. Interestingly, the climatic niches of all eight AIW s diverged significantly between the native and invasive ranges (the American continent and China). Furthermore, the AIW s showed larger climatic niche breadths in the invasive ranges than in the native ranges. Our results suggest that climatic niche shifts between native and invasive ranges occurred. Thus, the occurrence records of both native and invasive regions must be considered when modeling and predicting the spatial distributions of AIW s under current and future climate scenarios. Owing to high habitat suitability, AIW s were more likely to expand into regions of low latitude, and future climate change was predicted to result in a shift in the AIW s in Qinghai and Tibet (regions of higher altitude) as well as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu (regions of higher latitude). Our results suggest that we need measures to prevent and control AIW expansion at the country‐wide level.