Forecast of Passenger Flow Under the Interruption of Urban Rail Transit Operation

When the subway is interrupted for a long time with a wide impact range during the operation of urban rail transit, a lot of passengers will be stranded in the station. In this case, buses will be needed to evacuate the passengers to ensure the safety and the normal travel of passengers. Therefore, effectively predicting the volume of stranded passengers at each station is highly important to improve the efficiency of the passenger evacuation. This paper mainly describes the forecast of passenger flow in the disruption of urban rail transit operation. In this paper, we focus on transport organization under interruptions in emergency and according to the adjustment of traffic schemes determine the section to be connected. We use historical passenger flow data to estimate the stranded passenger flow at the interruption stations and in the trains, and according to the passenger destination summarize all the passenger flows. So, the bus company can arrange the connection plan based on the passenger flow data. In order to illustrate the calculation process of the algorithm, we take the Guangzhou Metro Line 1 as an example to carry out simulation calculation.