A nomogram to identify high-risk melanoma patients with a negative sentinel lymph node biopsy

Melanoma patients with negative nodes after sentinel lymph node biopsy are a heterogeneous group. Current guidelines fail to adequately stratify surveillance and treatment for this group. Also, there is scarce data on adjuvant treatments for these patients.To create a nomogram including clinical and pathologic characteristics capable of evaluating the risk for recurrence of primary melanoma patients with negative sentinel lymph node biopsies (SLNBs).We used a retrospective cohort of patients who underwent SLNB during 2000-2015 at a single institution.Our cohort comprised 1213 patients. Among these patients, 967 (79.7%) had a negative SLNB, and mean follow-up was 59.67 months. There were 133 recurrences (13.8%); 45 (33.8%) presented with nodal recurrence, and 35 (26.3%) recurred where a SLNB was performed. Breslow thickness, ulceration, and microsatellitosis were found to be predictive of risk for recurrence at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years.Single center analysis.We created a predictive nomogram for melanoma patients with negative SLNBs. This nomogram is easy to use and identifies high-risk patients who should have more strict surveillance and be considered for adjuvant treatment.