How Environmental Regulation, Digital Development and Technological Innovation Affect China’s Green Economy Performance: Evidence from Dynamic Thresholds and System GMM Panel Data Approaches

Based on the background of China’s “carbon neutral” policy and the booming digitalization, how does environmental regulation affect green economy performance? The existing literature has studied the impact of energy consumption on green economic performance. However, the literature has ignored the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on China’s green economy performance. In this regard, this research uses the non-radial distance function (NDDF) to calculate the green economic performance of China’s prefecture-level cities, and uses the dynamic panel threshold model and the systematic GMM method to study the nonlinear impacts and mechanisms of environmental regulation, digital development, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrade on green economic performance. The panel data set contains 228 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2019. The following findings are established: first, after adding carbon dioxide emissions to China’s green economy performance, the environmental performance was reduced, and the green economy performance was also reduced. Second, the impact of environmental regulations on green economic performance has a double-threshold effect, with threshold values of −0.267 and 3.602, and this double-threshold effect has temporal and regional heterogeneity. Third, environmental regulations of different intensities have a single-threshold effect between digital development, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrade, with threshold values of 2.955, 3.957, and 2.249, respectively. Fourth, digital development, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrade promote green economic performance. Fifth, environmental regulation acts on green economic performance through the transmission of digitalization, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrade. Based on these empirical findings, this research suggests that Chinese local governments should appropriately increase the intensity of environmental regulations, strengthen the digital application and technological innovation, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure to achieve the improvement of urban green economic performance.