The overlap of suitable tea plant habitat with Asian elephant (Elephus maximus) distribution in southwestern China and its potential impact on species conservation and local economy.

The expansion of land being used for cash crop cultivation has wildlife in recent decades. Tea has become the dominant cash crop in southwestern China. Unfortunately, tea plantations may threaten Asian elephant (Elephus maximus) populations via habitat loss and fragmentation. Identifying areas of suitable habitat for tea plant cultivation, and where this habitat overlaps with Asian elephant distribution, is vital for planning land use, managing nature reserves, shaping policy, and maintaining local economies. Here, we assess the potential impact of tea plantations on Asian elephants in southwestern Yunnan province, China. We used MaxEnt modeling with bioclimatic and environmental variables to identify suitable habitat for tea plant cultivation under the current climate scenario, and then overlapped this habitat with 9 known Asian elephant distribution areas (G1-G9) to determine threatened areas. Our results showed that (1) annual precipitation (48.1% contribution), temperature constancy (29 % contribution), and slope (8.7 % contribution) were key in determining suitable habitat for tea plants; (2) the cumulative area of suitable habitat for tea plants was 13,784.88 km2, mainly distributed in Menghai (3934.53 km2), Lancang (3198.67 km2), and Jinghong (2657.74 km2); (3) the distribution area of elephants was 943.75 km2, and these areas overlapped with suitable tea plant habitat primarily located in G4 (379.40 km2), G3 (251.18), and G7 (168.03 km2); and (4) areas in G1 and G7 were predominately located along the periphery of current nature reserves. Win-win solutions that work for elephant conservation and economic development include rescoping nature reserve boundaries, strengthening management on the periphery of nature reserves, establishing ecological corridors and new nature reserves within regions where elephants are currently distributed, planting alternative cash crops, and financial subsidies to farmers. This study improves understanding of human-elephant coexistence, and will assist in guiding land use policy for the future conservation outcomes seeking to promote responsible and profitable cash crop farming and elephant conservation.