Threshold effects of population aging on carbon emissions: From the perspective of industrial structure and residential consumption

Population aging and climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are two of the major challenges facing contemporary humanity. Based on panel data for 63 countries from 2000 to 2020, this paper empirically identifies and explores the threshold effects of population aging on carbon emissions, and tests in a causal inference framework the mediating effect mechanism of aging on carbon emissions through two pathways: industrial structure and consumption. Results show that generally when the percentage of the elderly population is higher than 14.5 %, carbon emissions related to industrial structure and residential consumption are significantly reduced although the threshold effects differ across countries. Particularly for lower-middle-income countries, the direction of the threshold effect is uncertain, which indicates the less importance of population aging for carbon emissions in these countries.