Reducing the uncertainty in estimating soil microbial-derived carbon storage

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change and enhancing soil productivity. Microbial-derived carbon (MDC) is the main component of the persistent SOC pool. However, current formulas used to estimate the proportional contribution of MDC are plagued by uncertainties due to limited sample sizes and the neglect of bacterial group composition effects. Here, we compiled the comprehensive global dataset and employed machine learning approaches to refine our quantitative understanding of MDC contributions to total carbon storage. Our efforts resulted in a reduction in the relative standard errors in prevailing estimations by an average of 71% and minimized the effect of global variations in bacterial group compositions on estimating MDC. Our estimation indicates that MDC contributes approximately 758 Pg, representing approximately 40% of the global soil carbon stock. Our study updated the formulas of MDC estimation with improving the accuracy and preserving simplicity and practicality. Given the unique biochemistry and functioning of the MDC pool, our study has direct implications for modeling efforts and predicting the land–atmosphere carbon balance under current and future climate scenarios.