Machine learning analysis of serum cholesterol's impact on knee osteoarthritis progression

Abstract The controversy surrounding whether serum total cholesterol is a risk factor for the graded progression of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) has prompted this study to develop an authentic prediction model using a machine learning (ML) algorithm. The objective was to investigate whether serum total cholesterol plays a significant role in the progression of KOA. This cross-sectional study utilized data from the public database DRYAD. LASSO regression was employed to identify risk factors associated with the graded progression of KOA. Additionally, six ML algorithms were utilized in conjunction with clinical features and relevant variables to construct a prediction model. The significance and ranking of variables were carefully analyzed. The variables incorporated in the model include JBS3, Diabetes, Hypertension, HDL, TC, BMI, SES, and AGE. Serum total cholesterol emerged as a significant risk factor for the graded progression of KOA in all six ML algorithms used for importance ranking. XGBoost algorithm was based on the combined best performance of the training and validation sets. The ML algorithm enables predictive modeling of risk factors for the progression of the KOA K–L classification and confirms that serum total cholesterol is an important risk factor for the progression of KOA.